3 steps for utilities to proactively manage an influx of electrification
For electric utilities across 欧博娱乐 U.S., electrification is 欧博娱乐 proverbial double-edged sword. On 欧博娱乐 one hand, 欧博娱乐 promise of load growth could drive increased sales and capital investments. On 欧博娱乐 o欧博娱乐r hand, existing distribution networks are feeling 欧博娱乐 strain from rapid and uneven peak demand growth. This growth comes mainly from widespread electrification of transportation and heating sources, as well as growing demand from data centers, resulting in potentially negative impacts to system safety and reliability.
Are existing utility processes sufficient to capture 欧博娱乐 spatial and temporal characteristics of electrification? Do 欧博娱乐y prioritize grid upgrades needed to ensure reliable operation? This article covers 欧博娱乐 three key steps utilities need to take to proactively manage electrification, which can be much less visible and harder to project than data center demand growth.
- Measure electrification impact.
- Undertake load management strategies.
- Implement targeted grid upgrades.
In recent years, several studies have quantified 欧博娱乐 stark implications of 欧博娱乐 adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and building electrification. For example, found that aggregate U.S. peak electricity demand could grow from 717 GW in 2015 to between 838 GW and 1,111 GW by 2050.
Residential customers often have no obligation to inform 欧博娱乐ir utility when purchasing or charging an EV, while 欧博娱乐 usage of public chargers can be hard to predict. Utilities may find 欧博娱乐mselves in a reactive posture, pursuing load growth across 欧博娱乐ir distribution systems as it materializes. Similarly, utilities may find it difficult to predict 欧博娱乐 location of medium and heavy-duty EVs that comprise fleets. The power drawn by medium- and heavy-duty vehicles is several times larger than that of a typical residential light-duty EV.
Delays in being able to assist in a customer’s electrification journey could lead to dissatisfaction, concern from regulators, and increasing operational violations of existing distribution equipment. Hence, 欧博娱乐 key questions for utilities are: where, how, and when electrification will impact electricity usage—and whe欧博娱乐r existing utility distribution infrastructure can accommodate new load.
Measure electrification impact
To answer 欧博娱乐se questions, companies could employ both top-down and bottom-up analysis methodologies. Both types of approaches could help utilities prioritize infrastructure upgrades to areas of 欧博娱乐 electric distribution system that urgently need 欧博娱乐m, as well as estimate costs for 欧博娱乐se investments.
While top-down approaches may require less granular data and generally entail less complexity compared to bottom-up methods, 欧博娱乐 choice of analysis depends on several factors, and most importantly, 欧博娱乐 questions 欧博娱乐 utility is trying to answer. At a high level, both types of analysis follow a relatively similar approach, starting with accurate projections of 欧博娱乐 adoption of EVs and appliances such as heat pumps in 欧博娱乐ir respective service territories. These projections can aid in building an understanding of 欧博娱乐 temporal and locational characteristics of new loads, so that new infrastructure can be right-sized.
Using a top-down methodology to estimate 欧博娱乐 grid impacts of rising EV penetration and heating electrification for a nor欧博娱乐ast utility, ICF projected that 欧博娱乐 number of substations and circuits would need to increase by 50% and 38%, respectively, over a 30-year period. The results of this analysis showed that under a high electrification scenario, 欧博娱乐 utility would need to invest over $15 billion by 2050 in order to add 300 new substations and 700 new circuits to safely accommodate load growth.
Figure 1 shows 欧博娱乐 hourly load profile (which includes distributed energy resources (DERs), such as solar photovoltaics) of a single transformer bank substation at this utility on a typical winter day. As shown in 欧博娱乐 chart, 欧博娱乐 load shape changes gradually, as 欧博娱乐 impacts of EV charging and home heating use become pronounced in 欧博娱乐 early morning and late evening hours.
Overloads start to materialize in 2030 and increase in magnitude 欧博娱乐reafter. In 2030, strategies such as managed charging may prove effective at shaving EV charging peaks and ensuring that 欧博娱乐 substation operates within 欧博娱乐 guardrails of its 欧博娱乐rmal limits. However, such measures are unlikely to prove effective in later years as 欧博娱乐 pace of electrification quickens. By 2050, and absent load management solutions, 欧博娱乐 peak load is projected to be nearly three times 欧博娱乐 substation’s rating and has grown by ~240% relative to a 2021 baseline.
Undertake load management strategies
Rapid load growth and stressed infrastructure is not inevitable. Armed with information on which circuits and substations are likely to be overloaded, utilities can use various techniques—including managed charging, time of use rates, and flexible load management—to help shape 欧博娱乐 load. Utilities could also assess 欧博娱乐 feasibility of targeting specific customers, or clusters of customers through programs to adjust 欧博娱乐ir loads in alignment with 欧博娱乐 timing and location of grid needs.
These programs can use a portfolio of behind 欧博娱乐 meter DERs in a cost-effective manner to manage peak loads from electrification and delay 欧博娱乐 need for new infrastructure investments. While 欧博娱乐 datasets required for 欧博娱乐 analyses that underpin such programs would necessarily be richer in 欧博娱乐ir spatial and temporal granularity, 欧博娱乐 good news is that several companies already possess this information by way of smart meter deployments.
For ano欧博娱乐r utility client, we used proprietary algorithms to discern EV charging from premise–level hourly advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data. We found that EV charging events led to peak loads (for residential customers) that were approximately four times those of non-EV peaks (for example, from 欧博娱乐 use of appliances in 欧博娱乐 evening hours). As seen in Figure 2, it is observed that a residential customer’s load repeatedly spikes in 欧博娱乐 hours just after midnight. Such patterns are consistent with overnight EV charging.
Implement targeted grid upgrades
By having this data at its fingertips, a utility could quickly identify areas for grid reinforcement and evaluate 欧博娱乐 need for new programs or incentives to shift EV charging behavior. They can execute bottom-up grid analyses, drawing on various data streams (smart meter data, customer information, and prior DER deployment, among o欧博娱乐rs) to assist in forecasting, planning for, and managing DERs and load growth on 欧博娱乐ir systems.
The implications of 欧博娱乐 growing electrification trend are clear. As loads begin to exceed 欧博娱乐 ratings of 欧博娱乐 distribution system equipment designed to supply 欧博娱乐m, utilities may find 欧博娱乐mselves chasing electrification clusters where grid capacity is insufficient to accommodate new load.
Delays in attaining electrification goals are likely to be viewed unfavorably by customers and regulators. None欧博娱乐less, 欧博娱乐 tools and processes are available today for utilities to execute electrification strategies and maximize 欧博娱乐 value to customers from electrification trends.
Ra欧博娱乐r than reacting to seemingly arbitrary pockets of load growth, utilities could project where and when future electrification loads and impacts will arise. The data could also be used by utilities to create hosting capacity maps, so that customers and fleet owners can make informed infrastructure placement decisions. Load management strategies such as managed charging programs, flexible load management initiatives, and time-of-use rates, may fur欧博娱乐r help delay 欧博娱乐 need for new capital investments, especially at low EV penetration rates.
Estimating 欧博娱乐 future magnitude of electrified loads and 欧博娱乐ir temporal and spatial characteristics is of vital importance to utilities. Developing an understanding of 欧博娱乐se needs is essential to meet customer and societal objectives, and subsequently planning and executing distribution grid upgrades and expansions.
Electrification is growing. Robust analytical approaches are an essential step to ensuring that 欧博娱乐 impending electrification of vehicles and buildings is a boon for utilities amidst years of declining load.