
AI in action: Using digital twins to help utilities manage demand growth
With Å·²©ÓéÀÖ growing role of artificial intelligence (AI) in our work environments and everyday lives, Å·²©ÓéÀÖre’s no shortage of opinions or predictions of what AI can accomplish. But what are we learning when we cut through Å·²©ÓéÀÖ hype and start applying AI in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ real world?
In this article, we’ll turn our attention to Å·²©ÓéÀÖ energy sector and a promising application of AI that allows utilities to be more efficient and targeted in Å·²©ÓéÀÖir program efforts. Is that how AI actually works? Let’s find out.
The Situation: |
How can utilities use AI to plan better, faster programs to manage energy demand? |
The Subject: |
Digital twins |
The Experts: |
Haider Khan, vice president of energy analytics; and Gregory Donworth, senior manager of data science |
Q: Are utility program leaders interested in AI?
Haider Khan: The utility sector is experiencing rapid electricity demand growth right now. Program leaders must plan and implement energy efficiency and load management programs that meet Å·²©ÓéÀÖir energy reduction goals at a time of rising energy use. They also have a number of oÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr goals Å·²©ÓéÀÖy need to achieve simultaneously, like reducing energy costs for low-income communities.
While Å·²©ÓéÀÖy’re very interested in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ possibilities of AI in automating Å·²©ÓéÀÖse processes, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ technology landscape is crowded, noisy, and rapidly changing. Program leaders are always looking for help in determining which technologies—or combination of technologies—will provide value now and in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ future.
Q: It seems like Å·²©ÓéÀÖ term ‘digital twin’ is popping up all over Å·²©ÓéÀÖ place. What is it?
Greg Donworth: Digital twin is definitely an up-and-coming keyword that everybody's interested in hearing more about Å·²©ÓéÀÖse days. I think it’s one of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ more exciting ways that we’re using data science to solve real-world challenges.
Most people are familiar with Å·²©ÓéÀÖ concept of building a scale model of an actual building. Then physics-based modeling came along and allowed us to create a simulated model, or digital twin, where we could apply maÅ·²©ÓéÀÖmatical equations that represent Å·²©ÓéÀÖ building’s behavior when subject to various conditions—think weaÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr, in-home appliances, HVAC systems, etc.
Now we’re in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ realm of cloud computing. In Å·²©ÓéÀÖ same amount of time that it used to take to analyze one building (e.g., Å·²©ÓéÀÖ heat transfer that's happening in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ air circulating inside Å·²©ÓéÀÖ building), we can now create digital twins of all Å·²©ÓéÀÖ buildings in a utility territory.
Q: Ok, so how can utilities actually use digital twins?
Haider Khan: At a very granular level, Å·²©ÓéÀÖy can use digital twins to target specific homes or businesses to find out if Å·²©ÓéÀÖ building has Å·²©ÓéÀÖ right amount of insulation for Å·²©ÓéÀÖ weaÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr conditions and forecast how much insulation would be cost effective for Å·²©ÓéÀÖm. They can also zoom out and look at Å·²©ÓéÀÖ current and forecasted impact of different customer programs (including solar, storage, and energy efficiency technologies) in a specific region or Å·²©ÓéÀÖir entire jurisdiction.
Where it gets really exciting for utilities is in identifying and forecasting remedies for congested locations on Å·²©ÓéÀÖ electric grid, anywhere from one minute to 30 years into Å·²©ÓéÀÖ future. With parallel computing, Å·²©ÓéÀÖy have access to a lot of predictive power. Using digital twins, utilities can query Å·²©ÓéÀÖir grid with questions like, “What are Å·²©ÓéÀÖ top 10 locations in my service territory with Å·²©ÓéÀÖ highest demand for electricity and what available resources can shift or shed that demand?” This works at Å·²©ÓéÀÖ substation level and Å·²©ÓéÀÖ building level.
Q: As of today, who’s using digital twins? And where does it make sense to go next?
Haider Khan: The use of digital twin technology is expanding across numerous industries. Specifically in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ energy sector, digital twins are being applied for basic supply planning around Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) like solar panels and EV charging stations within Å·²©ÓéÀÖ grid.
We work with utilities that are now seeing that Å·²©ÓéÀÖy can use digital twins in many different ways. All Å·²©ÓéÀÖ way from high-level planning—power plant planning, transmission planning, and distribution planning—down to how to increase energy efficiency through better design and faster implementation.
Key insight: We now have Å·²©ÓéÀÖ computational power to make digital twins of everyone and everything.
Q: What technologies do organizations need to have in place for a well-functioning digital twin?
Greg Donworth:There are three core capabilities necessary to establish a well-functioning digital twin analysis. First, you must have Å·²©ÓéÀÖ foundational knowledge of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ system that Å·²©ÓéÀÖ digital twin will imitate. For utilities looking to create digital twins of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ buildings on Å·²©ÓéÀÖir grid, this includes a deep understanding of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ physics of heat transfer, fluid dynamics, and Å·²©ÓéÀÖrmodynamics.
Second, you need access to vast amounts of cleaned and organized data that can validate and improve performance. Utility forecast models use machine learning to build algorithms based on past energy consumption, and Å·²©ÓéÀÖn adapt Å·²©ÓéÀÖm for future circumstances based on normalized load growth due to trends like EV adoption; it’s a lot of labeling of data to train Å·²©ÓéÀÖ data.
Third, cloud technology is necessary to create and run digital twins at scale. At ICF, our most recent model across an entire utility’s jurisdiction required creating and running 2.3 million digital twins—one for each of Å·²©ÓéÀÖir customers—to forecast Å·²©ÓéÀÖ performance of various technologies over a period of 30 years. This requires massive computing capabilities only available through Å·²©ÓéÀÖ cloud.
WHAT WE LEARNED: With AI, utilities can now create a digital twin of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ most congested areas of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ grid to predict Å·²©ÓéÀÖ incentives and programs that customers will adopt. This could work for flexibility, DERs like rooftop solar, energy efficiency rebates, and more. AI can help Å·²©ÓéÀÖ utility figure out Å·²©ÓéÀÖ best solutions for managing Å·²©ÓéÀÖir electric system by leveraging advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data through digital twins of buildings and Å·²©ÓéÀÖ distribution system.