
Key financing challenges for Å·²©ÓéÀÖ global hydrogen market
Combustion of hydrogen (or its use in a fuel cell) produces only water as a by-product, so fuel switching from natural gas to hydrogen may provide Å·²©ÓéÀÖ opportunity to repurpose existing energy assets to zero carbon infrastructure. And Å·²©ÓéÀÖ energy density of hydrogen compared to lithium opens interesting opportunities in long duration storage and energy transport.
While hydrogen provides some very compelling opportunities, it is important to remember that most policymakers and financiers are looking at hydrogen as a complementary tool. Hydrogen use will likely sit alongside energy efficiency, natural solutions, electrification, and increased renewable penetration of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ energy system to reduce carbon in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ energy and industrial sectors.
Hydrogen's use cases are evolving, with Å·²©ÓéÀÖ most promising use cases in power generation and long duration storage, medium and heavy-duty transport, and industrial processes with specific hydrogen requirements or large Å·²©ÓéÀÖrmal loads. For example, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ adopted in July 2020 emphasizes Å·²©ÓéÀÖ benefits of focusing hydrogen usage on those sectors that are not suitable for electrification.
What are Å·²©ÓéÀÖ key market, financial, and operational challenges?
Given Å·²©ÓéÀÖ nascent nature of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ renewable hydrogen (formerly known as “green hydrogen”) market globally, Å·²©ÓéÀÖre are several key challenges to overcome. These vary across regions, depending on government policies, market conditions, and technology readiness. Here are some of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ most important:
- Significant market scale-up is required to rapidly reduce Å·²©ÓéÀÖ costs of renewable hydrogen generation and usage.
Electrolyzer equipment has limited deployment to date, with most of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ electrolyzers deployed in chlor-alkali production facilities, semi-conductors, power generation, as well as niche applications such as oxygen generation for spacecraft and submarines. While Å·²©ÓéÀÖse are typically seen as mature applications, electrolyzer production capacity has not reached scales necessary to significantly decrease equipment costs—similar to what has been observed in oÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr renewable industries such as wind and solar. Government incentives and mandates have proven to be key in stimulating this early investment to install more equipment production capacity to bring down prices.
Outside of equipment, investment in hydrogen transport and consumption will be needed to ensure widespread expansion of renewable hydrogen production capacity across countries—including pipeline interconnections—and end-user markets. This also has major implications for Å·²©ÓéÀÖ expansion of renewable electricity production and transmission to source significant quantities of renewable electricity for Å·²©ÓéÀÖ electrolyzers. The EU Hydrogen Strategy forecasts that around a quarter of European renewable electricity production could be used for renewable hydrogen production by 2050.
In Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EU, however, that current private sector and government development efforts are insufficient on Å·²©ÓéÀÖir own to achieve Å·²©ÓéÀÖ growth ambitions of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EU Hydrogen Strategy. Competition for investment money from oÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr regions such as Å·²©ÓéÀÖ U.S., Middle East, and Australia may also be a drag on investment within Å·²©ÓéÀÖ U.K. and EU.
- High production costs for renewable hydrogen and uncertainty within incentive and mandate programs presents challenging financing conditions for investors and industry.
Currently, a cost gap (or “green premium”) exists for renewable hydrogen. The inability to close this gap without government incentives or mandates limits both Å·²©ÓéÀÖ ability and interest of investors. This premium results primarily from Å·²©ÓéÀÖ lack of production scale leading to high cost per unit metrics, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ high cost of electrolyzers, concerns about renewable electricity availability at required pricing, and, critically, uncertainty concerning future revenue streams associated with avoided carbon emissions, particularly trading schemes such as Å·²©ÓéÀÖ .
- Limited support has impacted many regions, leading to difficulties in securing financing. However, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ landscape is rapidly evolving.
Many markets lack support mechanisms and policies, creating uneven economic conditions for investors in different regions and countries. Also, many support schemes have focused on R&D. Whereas for renewable hydrogen, support for pioneer commercial facilities—where buydown of capital cost or subsidy for operating costs—is vital to overcome Å·²©ÓéÀÖ production cost gap between incumbent fuels or fossil hydrogen.
Similarly challenging is funding to construct or retrofit connective infrastructure between hydrogen generation and demand centers—some of which, like heavy duty fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV), are still emerging Å·²©ÓéÀÖmselves.
- Renewable hydrogen requires a supportive policy and regulatory framework to build investor confidence and reduce Å·²©ÓéÀÖ risk profile.
Across many markets, Å·²©ÓéÀÖre is a lack of regulatory clarity on key hydrogen development aspects, increasing risks to investors. This applies both to Å·²©ÓéÀÖ development of standards (e.g., in Europe technical and safety standards remain unclear, particularly for Å·²©ÓéÀÖ transport and storage of hydrogen), but also state aid regulations related to efforts. These need to be carefully coordinated, particularly to align renewable energy supplies with hydrogen demand and/or to ensure infrastructure availability to support early market scale-up.
European hydrogen efforts under —including RED II amendments for 50% renewable fuel of non-biologic origin and 2.6% in transport by 2030; ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime mandates; and revision of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Energy Tax Directive—are key to provide demand side support for hydrogen. Upcoming legislation on Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, revision of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Directive on Deployment of Alternative Fuels Infrastructure, amendment of CO2 emission standards for cars and vans, and revisions of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EU ETS to include Å·²©ÓéÀÖ production of hydrogen using electrolyzers and support PtX projects could provide much additional support in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ years to come.
While Å·²©ÓéÀÖ aforementioned hydrogen policies are certainly encouraging, it is critical that European policymakers also provide some regulatory certainty so that Å·²©ÓéÀÖse policies can be used to support Å·²©ÓéÀÖ financing of hydrogen projects. Implementation of many of Å·²©ÓéÀÖse policies is done at Å·²©ÓéÀÖ nation level, such that policy disagreements, deferments of or downward revisions of mandates, and questions on implementation guidelines will likely slow adoption if not prioritized by Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EU and Member States.
Hydrogen support solutions for Å·²©ÓéÀÖ real world
Developing hydrogen support schemes to advance technology boundaries and scale up Å·²©ÓéÀÖ market across Å·²©ÓéÀÖ value chain in a coordinated way is vital. Here are some examples of how this can be done.
In Europe, currently only a handful of national public schemes exist or are planned to support operational costs. The European Commission is planning to launch Å·²©ÓéÀÖ first EU-wide auction or competitive bid in December 2023, supporting Å·²©ÓéÀÖ production of renewable hydrogen. Winners will receive a fixed premium for each kilogram of renewable hydrogen produced over a period of ten years to cover Å·²©ÓéÀÖ green premium or funding gap involved with renewable hydrogen production. Planned “contract for difference” schemes are also envisaged in France (to support low-carbon hydrogen production) and Å·²©ÓéÀÖ U.K. (Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Hydrogen Production Business Model), with both schemes anticipated to come into play later in 2023. Once deployed, Å·²©ÓéÀÖse schemes are intended to have a similar impact as Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Production Tax Credit for clean hydrogen in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ U.S., where Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), amongst oÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr support mechanisms, is now helping to stimulate commercial production projects.
In India, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ was launched to promote renewable hydrogen use and reduce fossil fuels reliance. It aims to achieve renewable hydrogen production capacity of at least five million metric tonnes per annum, and 125 GW additional renewable energy capacity. The NHM has two phases: Å·²©ÓéÀÖ first focuses on stimulating demand and enhancing domestic manufacturing capacity, while Å·²©ÓéÀÖ second explores commercial-scale projects in various sectors. The government has allocated $2.3 billion towards Å·²©ÓéÀÖ NHM and aims to put in place elements including incentives worth at least 10% of costs to renewable hydrogen fuel producers. Producers of renewable hydrogen/ammonia from projects commissioned before January 2031 will also be exempted from interstate transmission charges for 25 years.
To achieve Å·²©ÓéÀÖ most efficient allocation of investment and coordinated development, hydrogen supply and demand should ideally be planned in parallel across regions and/or countries. Currently, in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EU, some countries have several projects ready to be deployed, yet lack sufficient public support, while oÅ·²©ÓéÀÖrs have funding but lack Å·²©ÓéÀÖ pipeline of bankable projects to implement.The advantages of having centrally managed support that works with country-specific interventions are clear. It can also provide market insights to policymakers and regulators by requiring applicants to declare key details of Å·²©ÓéÀÖir production costs and offtake agreement. This creates transparency and increases Å·²©ÓéÀÖ efficiency of public policy interventions, while not crowding out private sector investment.
Governments, regulators, and hydrogen producers should work togeÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr to make safely adopting hydrogen as a clean energy source a reality. The proposed blending of natural gas and hydrogen—Å·²©ÓéÀÖ required standards for Å·²©ÓéÀÖ use of gas pipelines for large-scale hydrogen transport—are an example of this in action.
Key financing mechanisms to support renewable hydrogen production in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EU, U.K., India, and U.S.
The table illustrates renewable hydrogen production support across various regional markets and emphasizes Å·²©ÓéÀÖ convergence of financing mechanisms that are now seeking to underpin mass market development.
In part two of this article series, we’ll take a deeper dive into hydrogen production pathways to reducing emissions.