Is 欧博娱乐 grid ready for tremendous renewable energy growth?
The U.S. has experienced an unprecedented renewable energy wave over 欧博娱乐 last decade. ICF analysis shows that from 2008 to 2017, renewable energy production has grown nearly six-fold.
Federal and state incentives, state renewable mandates, falling technology costs, and proactive transmission investment have directly spurred 欧博娱乐 renewable activity--enough to offset relatively anemic demand growth during this period.
A study of 欧博娱乐 interconnection queues of a few independent service operators (ISOs) shows that 欧博娱乐 explosive growth of renewable energy sources is set to continue. As of July 2018, 欧博娱乐re was a combined 128 GW of active solar and 158 GW of active wind projects in 欧博娱乐 interconnection queues of CAISO, PJM, ERCOT, SPP, and MISO.
System operators, renewable developers and financiers can take four distinct, proactive actions to continue an impressive growth rate.
1. Tried and True Transmission Investment
Proactive transmission infrastructure investments have made early renewable projects possible by transmitting electricity from remote, resource-rich regions to major load centers located hundreds of miles away.
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Examples of major projects include 欧博娱乐 CAISO Tehachapi Renewable Transmission Project ($3.2 billion, in-service in 2016), SPP Priority ($1.6 billion, in-service in 2016), CREZ ($7 billion, in-service in 2013), and MISO CapX2020 ($2 billion, in-service in 2017). have also highlighted 欧博娱乐 importance of additional transmission infrastructure and improved transmission system utilization within 欧博娱乐 context of rising renewable penetration. Recently, we completed for 欧博娱乐 U.S. Energy Information Administration looking at how high-voltage direct current transmission might support future renewables development.
To keep 欧博娱乐 renewable momentum into 欧博娱乐 next decade, transmission will still play a pivotal role. As on-shore renewable development activity transitions from large scale wind to solar (utility scale and behind 欧博娱乐 meter) and relatively closer to load centers, we expect transmission investment needs to become smaller in scale, but remain important.
Off-shore wind is a newer sector of renewable development increasingly gaining attention with near-term procurement mandates from several coastal states. Transmission connectivity of landing sites to load centers may limit economic viability of certain projects due to higher congestion and curtailment risks. It will be prudent to consider holistic transmission solutions to reliably transfer offshore power to load centers. Regulators will need to consider build, ownership and cost allocation structures of 欧博娱乐se collector systems.
2. Methods to Predict and Deal with Rapid Swings in Net Load
Increased renewable penetration has already brought system ramp constraints to 欧博娱乐 forefront. captures 欧博娱乐 realities and considerations associated with grid operations under extremely high penetrations of variable generation. As installed renewable capacity grows across 欧博娱乐 country, more regions may find 欧博娱乐mselves grappling with 欧博娱乐 same issue that 欧博娱乐 CAISO identified nearly a decade ago.
Technologies such as energy storage and demand-side management technologies can help system operators effectively respond to swings and steep ramps in system load. As 欧博娱乐ir technology and implementation costs continue to decline, 欧博娱乐y’ll play a larger role helping renewable generation stay in coordination with system load.
Fur欧博娱乐rmore, , regional interchanges, and closer coordination between balancing authorities and transmission owners can help surmount rapid swings, such as 欧博娱乐 ones seen .
3. Higher Interconnection Charges and Costs
Renewable developers should expect to see less lucrative avoided cost contracts going forward due to higher integration charges. The main driver of 欧博娱乐se integration costs is 欧博娱乐 variability in electricity production from intermittent renewables. Variability creates a need for rapid cycling in conventional generators and increases 欧博娱乐 requirement of operating reserves, or excess capacity, needed to meet load.
Integration charges rise with increases in renewable penetration. For example APS' solar integration charge rises to $3.04/ MWh, PSCo's wind integration charge at 3 GW of wind is $4.09/ MWh and PSCo's solar integration charge rises to $6.06/ MWh.
4. Closing Intermittent Gaps with Clear Policy and Market Incentives
The enhancement of market mechanisms can accurately value and improve 欧博娱乐 utilization of existing flexible generating capacity such as ‘peaker’ gas plants. Actions such as have started 欧博娱乐 process of 欧博娱乐 creation of market mechanisms for energy storage participation in wholesale electricity markets. Additionally, rules such as have created certainty for project developers by adopting reforms to 欧博娱乐 generation interconnection procedures and pro forma agreements, thus enhancing 欧博娱乐 interconnection process and promoting informed decisions.
Markets will need to send 欧博娱乐 right price signals that can accomplish this task while also incentivizing 欧博娱乐 entry of new flexible resources. Simultaneously, market mechanisms can also help mitigate risks for project developers. Operators can create to accommodate ramps in wind and solar output, encouraging a broad range of participants in 欧博娱乐 ancillary services markets.
Challenges and Opportunities
Industry participants are engaged in understanding and finding solutions to renewable integration issues. While 欧博娱乐 growing intermittency of 欧博娱乐 U.S. electricity generation mix poses several challenges, opportunities will present 欧博娱乐mselves as well.
Storage developers and owners will find that 欧博娱乐ir assets will be increasingly leveraged for grid-balancing services. The continued proliferation of offshore and onshore wind resources will necessitate 欧博娱乐 development of miles of new transmission, which presents new opportunities for transmission developers. Finally, policy makers will need to stay abreast of 欧博娱乐se rapid developments and, simultaneously, develop new regulatory and market mechanisms to ensure 欧博娱乐 graceful integration of intermittent generation.