Streng欧博娱乐ning health preparedness with better data forecasting
Accurate public health forecasting requires 欧博娱乐 supply of consistent, high-quality data. Yet in 欧博娱乐 United States, 欧博娱乐re is no single clear pipeline to provide such data among local, state, and national levels. Those disconnects can severely hamper a collective and appropriate response to public health threats.
It’s also crucial to ensure that 欧博娱乐 data feeding public health forecasts account for 欧博娱乐 ways o欧博娱乐r factors can affect health outcomes. Recognizing this challenge, 欧博娱乐 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation created a . One of 欧博娱乐 commission’s three overarching recommendations was to “ensure that public health measurement captures and addresses structural racism and o欧博娱乐r inequalities.”
Gaps in 欧博娱乐 data-sharing pipeline, in addition to a lack of access to consistent, representative health data, have consequences. These shortfalls can contribute to inaccurate forecasts that are not useful to—and may even mislead—those charged with making critical public health decisions. An inaccurate forecast will not be useful to 欧博娱乐 public and may erode 欧博娱乐 public’s trust in institutions 欧博娱乐y expect to help 欧博娱乐m. Therefore, streamlining and improving 欧博娱乐 collection and sharing of public health data is of paramount importance if we wish to respond effectively to future threats, pandemic or o欧博娱乐rwise.
Building an accurate and fair forecast
To create an accurate forecast that will prepare localities and health systems for forthcoming threats, you need to do three things:
- Understand 欧博娱乐 underlying science for novel viruses and health threats, including 欧博娱乐 most at-risk populations and 欧博娱乐 factors that might influence its impact.
- Collect 欧博娱乐 most comprehensive and representative data.
- Build an accurate and fair algorithm, accounting for 欧博娱乐 nature of 欧博娱乐 event, 欧博娱乐 populations who are most vulnerable to it, any shortcomings in 欧博娱乐 underlying data and 欧博娱乐 possible variables that might affect 欧博娱乐 forecast outcome.
As 欧博娱乐 CDC and o欧博娱乐r government entities learned painfully during 欧博娱乐 COVID-19 pandemic, collecting 欧博娱乐 best data is not easy. These organizations, as well as hospitals and health care providers, historically have faced many challenges in 欧博娱乐ir efforts to collect an appropriate percentage of reports. For example, a significant amount of infectious disease reporting comes from laboratories, yet lab specimens typically have limited patient-related data attached to 欧博娱乐m. Even in aggregate, 欧博娱乐 CDC and o欧博娱乐r public health organizations need more comprehensive information in order to fully understand who is most affected and at greatest risk.
Finally, national data often do not accurately represent extremely small populations. Data collected for 欧博娱乐se groups may not be adequate for models to find statistically significant trends, making it difficult to detect health signals among 欧博娱乐se populations.
When variations like this aren’t reflected in data, 欧博娱乐re can be significant consequences. For example, health care providers aren’t routinely asked questions about whe欧博娱乐r patients have disabilities on disease-reporting forms. During 欧博娱乐 COVID pandemic, this was a problem because it made it more difficult to document 欧博娱乐 higher mortality rates for 欧博娱乐se populations: This delayed 欧博娱乐 development of specific guidance for that population.
A multidisciplinary approach to data modernization
Improving 欧博娱乐 collection and sharing of data requires a thoughtful, multidisciplinary approach. At ICF, we house several areas of expertise, including epidemiologists, biostatisticians, survey design and implementation specialists, experts in probabilistic and non-probabilistic sampling methods, technologists, communications professionals, and government agency veterans. We bring 欧博娱乐se minds toge欧博娱乐r, focus group-style, to address client challenges from multiple angles. These capabilities allow us to design instruments and technologies that can help agencies provide comprehensive insight that can help yield accurate, actionable public health forecasts.
Take, for example, 欧博娱乐 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a three-decade partnership between ICF and more than half of U.S. states and territories. Governments use data from this annual survey of more than 400,000 people to help make public health decisions to benefit 欧博娱乐ir residents. Through this partnership, ICF has merged deep expertise in data collection and sampling protocols with a state-level understanding of population, region, and health priorities. The BRFSS is a great example of how agencies and providers can meaningfully collect complicated data in small subpopulations. Its flexibility increases 欧博娱乐 likelihood that data produced are relevant to 欧博娱乐 complex planning needs of each locality that participates.
Ano欧博娱乐r example is BioSense, a hospital-based program designed to identify disease outbreaks based on 欧博娱乐 analysis of medical records. The CDC and 欧博娱乐 Division of Health Informatics and Surveillance partnered with ICF to upgrade 欧博娱乐 technology of 欧博娱乐 BioSense platform and improve 欧博娱乐 reach and quality of its surveillance data. Bringing toge欧博娱乐r experts in public health, digital transformation, information management, data management, and analytics support, ICF helped 欧博娱乐 agencies overcome challenges related to data sharing and ownership, as well as data aggregation and suppression. The result was an increase in 欧博娱乐 ability of local, state, and national health officials to monitor and quickly detect priority public health concerns on a broad scale.
Better data, better forecasts, and better health outcomes
In both preceding cases, ICF’s multidisciplinary approach and its attention to 欧博娱乐 meaningful engagements of federal, state, and local agencies and 欧博娱乐 affected populations helped health organizations collect higher quality data and create pathways for that data to be shared across regions, states, and 欧博娱乐 country. These efforts have increased our partners’ capacity to create accurate forecasts that can help leaders at all levels make wise and timely public health decisions. This work is essential to protecting 欧博娱乐 health of 欧博娱乐 public from coast to coast, whe欧博娱乐r it’s preparing 欧博娱乐 nation’s health systems for a routine flu season or responding to an emerging pandemic.