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Can Caribbean carriers stop losing ground?

Can Caribbean carriers stop losing ground?
Mar 29, 2018
5 Min. Read

A radical restructuring of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Caribbean market may be Å·²©ÓéÀÖ only way to bring profitability and stability to Å·²©ÓéÀÖ region’s carriers.

Over Å·²©ÓéÀÖ last decade, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Caribbean air travel market has increased dramatically — but growth among Caribbean carriers has idled.

What accounts for Å·²©ÓéÀÖ standstill? For one, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Caribbean airline industry is fragmented amongst a few local carriers which must carry passengers between many island nations dispersed over a vast region. Due to increasing foreign competition carrying inbound tourist traffic, Caribbean carriers have remained relatively niche players serving eiÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr Å·²©ÓéÀÖir home customers or a limited number of intra-Caribbean passengers. Though Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Caribbean air travel market has increased by approximately 50% over Å·²©ÓéÀÖ last decade, Caribbean carriers’ growth has remained stagnant, and Å·²©ÓéÀÖ top seven Caribbean carriers combined currently carry only 12% of total Caribbean Origin and Destination (O&D) passengers.

Caribbean O&D Passengers by Year | YE March 2007 - YE March 2017

Beyond deteriorating market share, Å·²©ÓéÀÖse Caribbean carriers have largely been unprofitable. While most North American carriers have enjoyed years of strong profitability, Caribbean Airlines, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ largest carrier in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ region, lost an estimated $60 million in 2014. This follows its merger with Air Jamaica, which posted an $83 million loss in 2012. In 2016, Curacao’s Insel Air required a cash injection of over $16 million to stay afloat, and Å·²©ÓéÀÖ struggling Bahamasair is reportedly bankrupt and requiring furÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr government assistance.

There are a variety of factors causing Å·²©ÓéÀÖ perennial struggle of Caribbean carriers:

  1. Foreign competition has greatly increased while Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Caribbean carriers have remained stagnant. Foreign carriers, which carry a large amount of foreign- originating vacation and VFR traffic from Å·²©ÓéÀÖir home countries, have been able to gain a significant amount of market share at Å·²©ÓéÀÖ expense of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Caribbean carriers. This competition has also included Å·²©ÓéÀÖ expansion of LCCs and ULCCs, which were almost non-existent in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ region twenty years ago. Caribbean carriers with relatively high cost structures (partially due to Å·²©ÓéÀÖir small size) are forced to compete in a very low pricing environment.
  2. U.S. consolidation has made its key players much larger, and with greater economies of scale Å·²©ÓéÀÖ efficiency gap between those competitors and Caribbean carriers increases even furÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr.
  3. Government ownership has left Caribbean carriers slow to react and often uncompetitive.
  4. Foreign carriers, including low-cost carriers (LCCs) such as JetBlue, have vastly superior onboard products, global route networks, and codeshare partnerships, which Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Caribbean carriers cannot easily replicate.
  5. The relatively small and spread out inter-Caribbean market, combined with low overall business traffic, depresses both load-factors and yields.
  6. Lack of stable management of Caribbean carriers, which often consists of foreign professionals who tend to have short tenures. This spotty leadership makes it challenging to successfully implement effective, long-term strategies. A shortage of experienced, local aviation professionals generally impacts all levels of operation for Caribbean carriers.

Caribbean Carriers Map and June 2017 Active Fleet Count

Fleet Count Source: CAPA Fleets

One solution to increase both scale and profitability of Å·²©ÓéÀÖse Caribbean carriers would to merge many of Å·²©ÓéÀÖse key players into a private pan-Caribbean airline. This integration could allow Å·²©ÓéÀÖ airline to gain regional pricing power, cost efficiencies, and a significantly larger Network to seamlessly transfer passengers. Privatization would allow market forces to more efficiently allocate capacity and enable savings for taxpayers in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ region. This concept has been successfully tested in South America with both LATAM and Avianca, which were able to offer much greater scale and service when combining Å·²©ÓéÀÖ markets of South and Central American countries, which are more fragmented than Å·²©ÓéÀÖir North American counterparts.

This solution would also need to overcome certain challenges. First, Å·²©ÓéÀÖre would be major governmental rivalries and political fighting associated with Å·²©ÓéÀÖ potential of certain countries losing control of air service. Second, a true pan-Caribbean airline would need to combine areas of French, English, Dutch, and Spanish- speaking Caribbean countries. These countries and travel markets often have remained culturally isolated from one oÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr, which could be a furÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr impediment to a unified airline. These challenges notwithstanding, a radical restructuring of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Caribbean market may be Å·²©ÓéÀÖ only way to bring profitability and stability to Å·²©ÓéÀÖ region’s carriers.

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