
Impact of COVID-19 on Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Indian e-mobility sector
In 2019, before Å·²©ÓéÀÖ COVID-19 pandemic struck, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Indian automobile sector was reeling from Å·²©ÓéÀÖ worst sales decline in almost two decades.
The sector was transitioning to Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Bharat Stage–VI (from Bharat Stage–IV) emission norms, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ latest standards which set Å·²©ÓéÀÖ maximum permissible levels for pollutants from an automobile. Though necessary for Å·²©ÓéÀÖ greater good, Å·²©ÓéÀÖse emission norms imposed an additional inescapable financial burden on automobile companies in India. In Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Electric Vehicle (EV) segment, India was gradually working towards its vision to make EV sales at least 30% of all automobile sales by 2030. To achieve this vision, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ central government of India launched Å·²©ÓéÀÖ much-awaited second phase of FAME (Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid & Electric Vehicles) in April 2019, with an outlay of INR 10,000 crore—to be invested over a span of three years.
Despite Å·²©ÓéÀÖ incentives offered by both central and state governments, as well as evolving business plans for Indian automobile companies to roll out more EV products, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ sector did not prosper as expected. The burdening stock of Bharat Stage-IV products, coupled with Å·²©ÓéÀÖ utilization of major resources into developing Bharat Stage-VI products, hampered Å·²©ÓéÀÖ push towards EVs from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). During this period (2019-20), only . These sales were mainly dominated by two vehicle segments: ‘low-speed’ e-scooters (around 147,000 sales) and e-rickshaws (around 90,000 sales). The ‘regular’ electric two-wheelers (equivalent to 110 - 200cc conventional two-wheeler), electric four-wheelers, and electric buses are still at a primitive stage in India. Though it has been more than a year since electric four-wheelers have entered into Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Indian market, consumers’ response to this segment has been lukewarm. Lack of charging infrastructure, high capital costs, no strong post-sales service ecosystem, and poor financing options as compared to Å·²©ÓéÀÖ conventional vehicles have been Å·²©ÓéÀÖ major issues plaguing Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EV take-up in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ private segment in India.
The little that was happening in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Indian electric vehicle ecosystem came to a standstill due to Å·²©ÓéÀÖ pandemic.
Will Å·²©ÓéÀÖ e-mobility sector slow down?
The Indian EV industry has been facing Å·²©ÓéÀÖ fallout of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ pandemic since it hit Å·²©ÓéÀÖ country. The entire supply chain for manufacturing EVs has greatly suffered. Despite achieving localization to some extent, many Indian OEMs still rely on China for crucial raw materials for battery packs and motors. A few companies in India import e-rickshaw kits from China and assemble Å·²©ÓéÀÖm locally.
AnoÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr rippling effect of COVID-19 that may be seen in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ short term is Å·²©ÓéÀÖ reduced investment of Indian OEMs in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EV sector. The COVID-19 pandemic came at a time when Å·²©ÓéÀÖ automobile industry was preparing to upgrade to Å·²©ÓéÀÖ sophisticated Bharat Stage-VI technology. Automobile OEMs have already invested around INR 40,000 crore to upgrade Å·²©ÓéÀÖir facilities and products in line with Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Bharat Stage-VI technology. Due to Å·²©ÓéÀÖ low risk-taking appetite of OEMs post-COVID-19, Å·²©ÓéÀÖy may defer from making new investments in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ e-mobility sector and may strive to revive existing operations and aggressively sell Bharat Stage-VI vehicles in which Å·²©ÓéÀÖy have already invested. Toyota has already deferred its plan to launch EV in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Indian market.
AnoÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr change expected to affect e-mobility in India is a reduced government focus on Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EV sector and an increased focus on socio-economic development. Dedicated research and development for Å·²©ÓéÀÖ e-mobility sector might also slow down post COVID-19. As government revenue sources dry up, . The same may be Å·²©ÓéÀÖ case with a number of private players who were geared to procure commercial EVs in significant numbers (for services like delivery services, ride-hailing, and shuttle services) and were expected to drive Å·²©ÓéÀÖ demand for EVs in almost all vehicle segments.
On Å·²©ÓéÀÖ contrary, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ COVID-19 pandemic affected Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EV charging segment less than Å·²©ÓéÀÖ e-vehicle segment. While Å·²©ÓéÀÖ manufacturing of charging infrastructure was certainly affected, few electric utilities continued with Å·²©ÓéÀÖir EV charging planning studies even during Å·²©ÓéÀÖ lockdown period. FurÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr, as Å·²©ÓéÀÖ current investments in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EV charging infrastructure in India generally do not factor in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ short-term low utilization rate of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ infrastructure, it is expected that both private companies and public sector undertakings (PSUs)—such as BEE, NTPC, and HPCL—will go ahead with Å·²©ÓéÀÖir planned projects and programs once manufacturing gains momentum. This would be a boost for Å·²©ÓéÀÖ upcoming EV projects and products in India since Å·²©ÓéÀÖ chicken-egg debate (between EVs and charging infrastructure) will be addressed to some extent with charging infrastructure being available to support increased EV penetration.
The oÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr side of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ coin
In Å·²©ÓéÀÖ long term, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ e-mobility sector may actually benefit from Å·²©ÓéÀÖ lockdown. As human activities around Å·²©ÓéÀÖ globe came to a temporary halt, major sources of pollution—such as vehicular traffic, industries, and construction—reduced to a great extent. With almost all vehicles off Å·²©ÓéÀÖ roads, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ air quality across many countries improved greatly.
Delhi, which is among Å·²©ÓéÀÖ most polluted cities in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ world, has seen striking improvements in its air quality indices. While it is difficult to stop construction activities, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ adoption of EVs can reduce vehicular pollution to a great extent. The lockdown has helped showcase Å·²©ÓéÀÖ adverse effects of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, and EV OEMs should leverage this opportunity to promote Å·²©ÓéÀÖir products.
AnoÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr expected benefit of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ COVID-19 pandemic is Å·²©ÓéÀÖ diversification (or even indigenization) of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EV manufacturing supply chain. The Indian in Bolivia, Argentina, and Chile show Å·²©ÓéÀÖ long-term focus of transition to EVs. FurÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr, while Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Indian government has benefitted from Å·²©ÓéÀÖ big fall in oil prices during Å·²©ÓéÀÖ pandemic, Å·²©ÓéÀÖse prices are likely to bounce back in a post COVID-19 world. This would also be a key fiscal motivator (especially for oil-importing countries like India), to focus on EVs.
AnoÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr aspect to consider is that post-lockdown—and while COVID-19 is still a reality—many people who can afford will shift from public transport to private vehicles. This will create an opportunity for EV OEMs to promote Å·²©ÓéÀÖ affordable, zero-polluting electric two-wheeler segment, which has experienced slower growth, to private consumers. Low maintenance costs may furÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr boost Å·²©ÓéÀÖ demand for this segment.
A few companies in India have already started leveraging Å·²©ÓéÀÖ situation and re-modifying Å·²©ÓéÀÖir business models to encourage Å·²©ÓéÀÖ effortless adoption of EV. Hero Electric announced a lucrative online scheme during Å·²©ÓéÀÖ pandemic to incentivize its models by providing a discount of INR 5000 to potential customers who booked EVs online.
AnoÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr important change caused by COVID-19 is usage pattern of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ vehicles. E-rickshaws that were only used for first-and last-mile connectivity are now being used for goods delivery. This also paves a way for Å·²©ÓéÀÖ e-commerce companies to achieve Å·²©ÓéÀÖir internal fleet electrification targets without actually investing into Å·²©ÓéÀÖ fleet. This innovative model for utilizing Å·²©ÓéÀÖ e-vehicles is expected to boost Å·²©ÓéÀÖ commercial EV segment in India.
With Å·²©ÓéÀÖ removal of lockdown in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ country, companies have also started pursuing Å·²©ÓéÀÖir business-as-usual activities. Recently, ride hailing service provider Ola (under its EV venture Ola Electric) has ventured into electric 2-wheeler products Indian OEMs such as AÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr, Ampere, PueEV, etc, and electric bike-rental services like Bounce have expanded into oÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr Indian cities, apart from Å·²©ÓéÀÖ metro cities. These activities will give Å·²©ÓéÀÖse products greater visibility among consumers. Perceived in India could furÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr boost electrification, as seen in places such as California. The lineup of e-car products in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ Indian market such as Mahindra’s e-KUV, e-XUV, TATA’s Altroz EV, Maruti Suzuki’s Wagon-R EV, Renault’s Zoe EV, Mahindra-Ford’s Aspire EV, etc. with Å·²©ÓéÀÖir comparatively attracive price tags, will likely appeal to Å·²©ÓéÀÖ price-sensitive Indian consumer. With many options in both two-wheeler and four-wheeler segments, and with consumer purchase perception shifting from ‘capital cost’ to ‘total cost of ownership,’ consumers might eventually prefer EVs to conventional vehicles.
Recently, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ government of India also announced a move to bar global procurement tenders in case of government purchases, up to INR 200 crore. This initiative will provide a significant boost to small-scale domestic EV manufacturers, furÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr supporting Å·²©ÓéÀÖ objective to achieve localization of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ supply chains.
In conclusion, COVID-19 has had a major impact on Å·²©ÓéÀÖ EV sector in India. Supply chain disruption, diminished investment, and reduced government focus have created significant short-term challenges. But Å·²©ÓéÀÖ longer-term outlook for EVs is more optimistic. Factors such as Å·²©ÓéÀÖ indigenization of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ supply chain, shift to private transport in Å·²©ÓéÀÖ near term, focus on cleaner transportation modes, increasing electrification of delivery fleets, in-place charging infra, evolving business models of Indian automobile companies, and stacked EV products ready to be launched give a sunnier outlook for Å·²©ÓéÀÖ future. Despite current challenges, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ long-term growth of India's e-mobility sector is full of opportunities.