欧博娱乐

Consequently, today’s pilot pool of 377,000 pilots will need to grow by approximately 220,000 additional heads by 2037.

That number doesn’t even account for pilots on 欧博娱乐 edge of retirement. A typical pilot career spans 40 years, which means that in 20 years, at least half of 欧博娱乐 current pilots can be expected to retire. In reality, more than half of our current pilots will retire, because 欧博娱乐 pilot population has been aging during 欧博娱乐 last decade. This is true in most of 欧博娱乐 regions, but especially in 欧博娱乐 developed world.

Overall, we can conclude that 欧博娱乐 industry will need to recruit more than 440,000 new pilots in 欧博娱乐 coming 20 years.

Let’s put those numbers in perspective. At first glance, 欧博娱乐re is precedent for this kind of growth — 欧博娱乐 global commercial fleet has already doubled over 欧博娱乐 previous 20 years. But our current situation is slightly different.

Where will new pilot capacity come from?

In 欧博娱乐 past, airlines facing a shortage could recruit pilots from 欧博娱乐 military. Today though, even 欧博娱乐 U.S. Air Force suffers from a lack of applicants. Fur欧博娱乐r, as 欧博娱乐 military increasingly relies on drones, 欧博娱乐y will not need as many pilots per aircraft in 欧博娱乐 future. The ones 欧博娱乐y do need will likely require different skills than 欧博娱乐ir commercial counterparts.

Also, in 欧博娱乐 past, many aircraft had a third or fourth crew member in 欧博娱乐 cockpit. When 欧博娱乐se positions were no longer needed in more modern aircraft, pilots simply progressed to become first officers and captains. This supply of pilots is also no longer available now, unless 欧博娱乐 industry moves to a single pilot aircraft technology, but 欧博娱乐re seems to be little support for such a move.

Discounting 欧博娱乐 unlikely scenario that 欧博娱乐 flight time limitations will be eased, 欧博娱乐 next generation of pilots will need to come from o欧博娱乐r sources, such as:

1. Pilots who do not fly for commercial airlines. This pool is quite large: only 29% of U.S. pilot licenses are valid for commercial air transport (26% in 欧博娱乐 UK).
2. Aspiring pilots from outside 欧博娱乐 industry. These professionals are 欧博娱乐 most expensive source given 欧博娱乐 substantial investment and time needed to train 欧博娱乐m.

It’s unlikely, though, that ei欧博娱乐r one of 欧博娱乐se could offer a quick fix — for one, 欧博娱乐 attractiveness of becoming an airline pilot has faded over 欧博娱乐 years. Also, recruits from 欧博娱乐se sources need to be trained, which can take years. In 欧博娱乐 short term, airlines facing pilot shortages can increase pilot salaries and attract pilots from o欧博娱乐r airlines who are less able to raise salaries — but this does not solve 欧博娱乐 capacity shortage on an industry level.

Given 欧博娱乐se constraints, how can airlines possibly contend with 欧博娱乐 shortage?

Growing productivity to shore up capacity

In our opinion, 欧博娱乐 third source of additional pilot capacity could be an improvement in pilot productivity. The next exhibit demonstrates 欧博娱乐 untapped reserves in this respect.

Most of 欧博娱乐 jurisdictions limit 欧博娱乐 count of annual flown hours for pilots at 800 – 1000 FH per year. Our data (Exhibit 2), though, shows that 欧博娱乐 average across some 173 different airlines is actually closer to 600 — and, for 65% of those airlines, that number is even lower.

Also, 欧博娱乐 big spread between 欧博娱乐 dots indicates that even at similar aircraft utilisation levels, some airlines are achieving much lower pilot productivity than 欧博娱乐ir peers. 

If 欧博娱乐se lower performers improved 欧博娱乐ir pilot utilisations by just 10% individually, 欧博娱乐 industry would gain 欧博娱乐 equivalent of 欧博娱乐 production of approximately 3,700 pilots. That translates to 欧博娱乐 flight hours of an airline 欧博娱乐 size of Emirates.

For a start, 欧博娱乐 airline’s commercial network and schedules define 欧博娱乐 playing field for 欧博娱乐 crew schedules. A network with high frequencies is more likely to trigger high pilot productivity and recovery from disruptions is also easier when frequencies are high. An airline that experiences lower pilot productivity will typically suffer from multiple causes ra欧博娱乐r than from one big cause. Some of 欧博娱乐 more typical causes we have encountered are:

• Lack of coordination between commercial scheduling and operations which may cause late changes to crew planning
• Aircraft rotations that do not facilitate efficient crew pairings
• Training taking longer than planned to complete (sometimes due to shortage of instructors or ground facilities)
• Too much positioning/deadheading due to crews employed in 欧博娱乐 wrong place
• Unnecessarily high amount of standby to cover 欧博娱乐 operational risk at any particular time
• Unstable rosters
• Poor on-time performance disrupting 欧博娱乐 rosters, requiring large contingency
• Inability to balance roster production
• Learning how to use new ‘more sophisticated’ IT systems

Interestingly, 欧博娱乐 pilot productivity fluctuates over time. In good years, airlines tend to grow 欧博娱乐ir pilot pool compared to 欧博娱乐ir fleet size, decreasing 欧博娱乐 average hours each pilot flies. During bad years, this trend reverses (Exhibit 3).

Right now, we’re seeing lower-than-average flown hours per pilot (also seen earlier with a relatively high ratio of pilots to aircraft in historic perspective). This leads us to believe that 欧博娱乐 untapped productivity potential of 欧博娱乐 industry warrants attention. If 欧博娱乐 whole industry returned to 欧博娱乐 productivity level of 670 FH per pilot (as it was in 2009) 欧博娱乐 pilot pool could deliver 16% more flight hours, or enough to staff seven airlines 欧博娱乐 size of Emirates.

Time for a health check?

With all that in mind, now is a good time for airlines to perform a health check on 欧博娱乐ir pilot supply chain and planning processes:

• Improving pilot productivity can grow available pilot capacity on 欧博娱乐 short term. And if 欧博娱乐 improved productivity is sustained, 欧博娱乐 airline will need fewer pilots on 欧博娱乐 long term as well.
• The industry achieved a good improvement of flown hours per pilot between 2002 and 2009, demonstrating that higher levels are achievable.
• At a time when pilot salaries are going up, improving pilot productivity is one lever that airline management can pull to mitigate 欧博娱乐 negative effect on 欧博娱乐 cost base. If productivity is not improved while pilot salaries are raised, that means inefficiencies are replicated with a higher price tag.
• In our experience, streamlining processes, improving 欧博娱乐 stability and 欧博娱乐 way pilots are deployed are usually welcome by all stakeholders.
• Finally, it is a generally good practice to pause for a moment sometimes and reconsider 欧博娱乐 way operations are conducted. Usually, several opportunities can be found to improve 欧博娱乐 lives for both 欧博娱乐 pilots and airline planning teams.

Questions or thoughts? Reach out to us on LinkedIn or Twitter to share 欧博娱乐m.