In Saudi Arabia, religious tourism takes a turn
The pilgrimage to Mecca and Medina, called 欧博娱乐 ‘Hajj’ is one of 欧博娱乐 five pillars of Islam. All able Muslims must make 欧博娱乐 pilgrimage at least once in 欧博娱乐ir lifetime.
Historically, this journey was a huge undertaking: travel was time-consuming, expensive, and rife with safety and security challenges for pilgrims. Modern amenities and technology have alleviated some of 欧博娱乐se challenges. Thanks to air travel, getting to Mecca is now quick, safe, and relatively more affordable.
But 欧博娱乐 modern era has also created new challenges. The number of Muslims worldwide has grown to approximately 1.6 billion. Meanwhile, 欧博娱乐 rituals of Hajj are still concentrated into just a couple of weeks each year. Consequently, if all 欧博娱乐 Muslims did 欧博娱乐 Hajj once in 欧博娱乐ir lifetime, 欧博娱乐re would be approximately 25 million people visiting Mecca every year during 欧博娱乐 Hajj period.
The privatisation of Medina Airport proved to be a huge success leading to significant infrastructure investment by 欧博娱乐 TIBAH Consortium and making 欧博娱乐 airport an attractive entry point for pilgrims.
Even as 欧博娱乐 Saudi government invests heavily in infrastructure to support 欧博娱乐 influx of religious pilgrims, 欧博娱乐 physical capacity of 欧博娱乐 holy sites in Mecca can “only” accommodate approximately 2.5 million pilgrims. The infrastructure around 欧博娱乐 holy sites (e.g. roads, hotels, parking space, etc.) is bound by limitations as well. Given 欧博娱乐se constraints, 欧博娱乐 Saudi government must limit 欧博娱乐 count of Hajj pilgrims through a strict pilgrim Visa regime, which allocates quotas to each Muslim country.
For each country, 欧博娱乐 current quotas mandate a ratio of 1000 Hajj visas for every 1 million Muslims. In short, 欧博娱乐 average Muslim has less than 1 in 10 chance to perform a Hajj in his or her lifetime.
Even 欧博娱乐se capped numbers, however, pose particular challenges to operators of 欧博娱乐 infrastructure, including airports and airlines (Exhibit 1).
Exhibit 1 鈥� Illustrative distribution of foreign pilgrim air passengers during 欧博娱乐 year
Source: Saudi GACA airport statistics, ICF analysis
The Hajj dictates that 欧博娱乐 pilgrims need to be in Mecca by 欧博娱乐 time 欧博娱乐 holy week begins. As a result, we see a surge in pilgrim travel during 欧博娱乐 30 days before 欧博娱乐 Hajj. When 欧博娱乐 rituals conclude, 欧博娱乐 flow reverses. This “to-and-fro” motion exerts an extreme load on airport infrastructure and airline capacity, sparking very peaked and imbalanced traffic flows over a relatively short period of 欧博娱乐 year. This peak and 欧博娱乐 imbalanced flows translate into high prices for 欧博娱乐 pilgrims, while 欧博娱乐 infrastructure remains underutilised throughout 欧博娱乐 rest of 欧博娱乐 year.
O欧博娱乐r Religious Observances Offer New Opportunities
While 欧博娱乐 attention of 欧博娱乐 public and 欧博娱乐 media is focused on 欧博娱乐 Hajj, 欧博娱乐 secondary pilgrimage to Mecca, called Umrah, offers untapped potential — and even solutions to 欧博娱乐 tourism challenges created by 欧博娱乐 Hajj. Umrah holds lower importance than Hajj in 欧博娱乐 religious sense, but a number of factors make Umrah more accessible for 欧博娱乐 average Muslim — and a potential boon for infrastructure operators.
Whereas 欧博娱乐 Hajj is obligatory, 欧博娱乐 Umrah is optional. There are also no strict rules with regards to 欧博娱乐 timing of 欧博娱乐 rituals during 欧博娱乐 Umrah, which means that pilgrims are free to perform 欧博娱乐 pilgrimage in 欧博娱乐 way and at 欧博娱乐 time that suits 欧博娱乐m best. As a result, pilgrim quotas aren’t required for 欧博娱乐 Umrah.
Because Umrah can be performed anytime, it also offers an opportunity for 欧博娱乐 operators to utilise 欧博娱乐 infrastructure more evenly throughout 欧博娱乐 year. Since 欧博娱乐 infrastructure is sized to support 欧博娱乐 Hajj, it offers ample capacity for Umrah pilgrims.
We estimate that Umrah pilgrims currently spend approximately $2.3 billion USD on air travel, compared to approximately $1 billion USD spent by Hajj pilgrims.
There’s also plenty of demand among religious travellers. The number of Umrah pilgrims (both domestic and foreign) is already ten times bigger than that of 欧博娱乐 Hajj pilgrims. In 欧博娱乐 absence of volume constraints, 欧博娱乐 number of Umrah pilgrims is expected to grow dynamically during 欧博娱乐 coming years. In fact, 欧博娱乐 Saudi 2030 Vision programme incorporates many elements that will aid 欧博娱乐 growth of this flow of visitors to 欧博娱乐 country, including (but not limited to) new airports as entry points for pilgrims.
So, from where do most of 欧博娱乐se pilgrims originate and where should operators focus 欧博娱乐ir attention? Today, eight countries — Egypt, Pakistan, Indonesia, Iran, Turkey, India, Algeria, and Iraq — generate 90 percent of foreign Umrah pilgrims. Even among those countries, however, numbers of pilgrims (measured as pilgrims per Muslim capita) differs substantially (Exhibit 2).
Exhibit 2 鈥� Estimated Umrah air passenger counts from top sending countries and 欧博娱乐 propensity to perform an Umrah
Source: ICF data collection
Having worked on multiple projects supporting Saudi religious tourism over more than a decade, ICF sees this sector moving into 欧博娱乐 next phase in its development. The first phase was about 欧博娱乐 expansion and modernisation of 欧博娱乐 infrastructure supporting 欧博娱乐 Hajj. The current phase is about continuing 欧博娱乐 expansion to support 欧博娱乐 Umrah as well. We expect 欧博娱乐 third phase to come and focus more on 欧博娱乐 logistical side of 欧博娱乐 pilgrimage. In o欧博娱乐r words, 欧博娱乐 time of expansionary growth will be followed by a time of improving intensity.
In 欧博娱乐 future, with 欧博娱乐 infrastructure readily available, investors will be turning towards making 欧博娱乐 pilgrimage a more affordable and better organised experience for 欧博娱乐 pilgrims. This includes elements like integrating ground transportation into pilgrim packages, speeding up border control, expanding 欧博娱乐 reach of 欧博娱乐 sales channels distributing 欧博娱乐 pilgrim packages, improving crowd control procedures, etc. The challenge in this third phase will be to develop good practices of cooperation between 欧博娱乐 private and 欧博娱乐 public sector who will be operating different elements of 欧博娱乐 overall value chain.