The rebirth of short-haul aviation
Short-haul electric aviation will dramatically impact 欧博娱乐 aviation industry as a whole, bringing more environmentally-friendly options to 欧博娱乐 market.
Over 欧博娱乐 past two decades, 欧博娱乐 number of passengers on U.S. flights of less than 250 miles has fallen by half. Airline strategy, route economics, and small aircraft retirements have all factored into this decline, but 欧博娱乐re is a major change coming to this travel segment—electric aviation. While electric replacement of narrow-body aircraft like 欧博娱乐 B737 and 欧博娱乐 A320 is decades away, short-haul air taxi service on electric aircraft is a lot closer than you think. In fact, 欧博娱乐 first scheduled commercial service using electric aircraft will take flight in less than three years, and it is going to be a game-changer.
Two forces are now taking hold that will dramatically change 欧博娱乐 short-haul aviation market: a change in 欧博娱乐 demand for short haul travel; and 欧博娱乐 rapid advance in electric aviation technology. In a post-COVID world, employees increasingly will work and live in remote locations, reducing 欧博娱乐 need for short haul travel. Meanwhile, 欧博娱乐 economics of electric aviation are becoming more feasible. Electric aviation has 欧博娱乐 potential to change consumer travel behavior, moving travelers out of cars and into low-carbon or zero-carbon emission quiet aircraft. This will result in lower costs and shorter travel times while using existing small airport infrastructure.
Creating an entirely new segment of travel: Sub-regional aviation
The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that employees can have 欧博娱乐 freedom to work from remote locations without diminishing performance. The impact of this change is already visible in major U.S. cities. Lease rates are down 10% in previously hot real estate markets such as New York and San Francisco. Housing prices in second home destinations such as 欧博娱乐 Berkshires and 欧博娱乐 Jersey Shore are also rapidly rising. However, living and working from remote locations will not completely replace 欧博娱乐 need for face-to-face meetings at headquarters or with clients.
Electric aviation is a subset of 欧博娱乐 larger Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) market that includes fixed-wing and electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft serving a range of 50 to 500 miles. However, we believe that 欧博娱乐 traditional airport-to-airport will be 欧博娱乐 leading edge of development.
With today’s aircraft design and improved battery technology, short-haul aviation (400 miles or less) is a reality—not a dream. Last summer, a California-based firm successfully flew a retrofitted electric Cessna Caravan. The cost of 欧博娱乐 fuel for 欧博娱乐 maiden flight was $4.80 of battery charge compared to $400 in jet fuel cost. Several original equipment manufacturers have developed prototypes and are beginning 欧博娱乐 process of attaining Federal Aviation Administration certification. The expectation is that 欧博娱乐 U.S. fleet will include electric aircraft within 欧博娱乐 next three to five years.
Fixed-wing vs eVTOL
The new economics of electric aircraft are compelling. Direct operating costs of electric aircraft are estimated to be 80% less than conventional turboprop aircraft. Using today’s aviation and battery technology, short-haul electric aviation promises to reduce 欧博娱乐 cost passengers pay for air travel, per passenger mile, by between one-half to two-thirds.
The combination of new technology and changing lifestyle demographics can fundamentally transform 欧博娱乐 aviation industry in a way not seen since 欧博娱乐 beginning of 欧博娱乐 Jet Age. Electric aircraft, coupled with battery charging from renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, will dramatically decrease 欧博娱乐 carbon footprint for this class of flying.
In 欧博娱乐 near future, electric aviation will impact 欧博娱乐 aviation industry, fundamentally changing how we travel. Future sub-regional aviation will rely on electric aviation, creating a new market for passengers, especially those who work remotely in 欧博娱乐 post-COVID world.
How short-haul aviation will affect 欧博娱乐 wider market
An analysis of 欧博娱乐 U.S.’s potential market opportunity estimates a need for a fleet of 3,300 electric aircraft within 欧博娱乐 first 15 years. Since nine-seat air taxi aircraft do not need 欧博娱乐 same airport infrastructure as large commercial jets (e.g., shorter runway and no passenger security screening), electric aircraft can take off from regional airports and airstrips by tapping into 欧博娱乐 underutilized capacity of 欧博娱乐 U.S.’s 600 scheduled commercial service airports and over 6,000 general aviation airports. Passengers will still be able to access 欧博娱乐 national aviation system, acting ei欧博娱乐r as feeders into medium and large hub airports or point-to-point services that bypass busy commercial airports.