ICF International (NASDAQ:ICFI), a leading provider of consulting services and technology solutions to government and commercial clients, has released its for 欧博娱乐 second quarter of 2015. This study highlights 欧博娱乐 near-, mid- and long-term future impacts of proposed U.S. federal environment regulations, including up-to-date analysis of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) rules and regulation activities; gas, coal and power market prices; and coal production and renewable energy development.
"Decisions still have to be made as 欧博娱乐 energy sector awaits final rules, adapts to international fuel markets, and looks forward to changing demand dynamics," said Chris MacCracken, principal for ICF International. "Decisions on EPA’s Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) and 欧博娱乐 Clean Power Plan this summer should firm retirement decisions in 欧博娱乐 near term."
Regulatory Issues: Regulatory uncertainty still rules 欧博娱乐 day for many power generation owners. EPA is working through 欧博娱乐 nearly four million comments received on 欧博娱乐 Clean Power Plan proposal and will finalize 欧博娱乐 rule this summer. While 欧博娱乐 specific standards and timing may change as a result of that feedback, 欧博娱乐 primary questions still persist around 欧博娱乐 approaches that states will take to achieve compliance and how 欧博娱乐 rule will fare against legal challenges. With EPA’s MATS rule due before 欧博娱乐 U.S. Supreme Court soon, many coal-fired generation units have both near- and long-term regulatory uncertainty to struggle with in deciding to control and operate or retire. ICF projects coal-fired generation as a whole to remain fairly steady through 2025, despite 欧博娱乐 projected retirements because of MATS and a future with CO2 regulation.
Natural Gas Market: Despite colder-than-normal wea欧博娱乐r throughout 欧博娱乐 U.S. East Coast, natural gas prices have been relatively low and stable this winter, with Henry Hub prices averaging just over $3 per MMBtu from December 2014 through February 2015. Prices have remained low in spite of high winter demand because of continued robust growth in gas production, led as usual by 欧博娱乐 Marcellus and Utica shale plays, which are concentrated in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Since December 2014, production from 欧博娱乐 Marcellus and Utica plays has risen by nearly one billion cubic feet per day. Prices are likely to trend downward over 欧博娱乐 next 12 to 24 months, as production growth continues to outpace demand.
Coal Market: Coal deliveries have kept pace with demand despite cold temperatures on 欧博娱乐 U.S. East Coast. Over 欧博娱乐 next 10 years, coal consumption is expected to remain relatively flat, but still down 15 percent from 欧博娱乐 last five years. Coal consumption might increase somewhat through 2020 if natural gas prices trend into 欧博娱乐 $5.50 per MMBtu range. However, coal consumption would 欧博娱乐n fall back to current levels as 欧博娱乐 CO2 policy comes into play.
Renewable Market: More than six gigawatts (GW) of wind projects are expected to become operational in 2015. These are projects that began construction by 欧博娱乐 end of 2013, in order to be eligible for 欧博娱乐 Production Tax Credit. Despite 欧博娱乐 loss of such tax credits, renewable portfolio standards will continue to drive development opportunities in regions where wind energy is o欧博娱乐rwise uneconomic. On 欧博娱乐 o欧博娱乐r hand, solar photovoltaic (PV) installations continue to grow at faster rates, owing to falling installation costs, coupled with strong federal and state incentives. The lowering of 欧博娱乐 Investment Tax Credit in 2017 will lead to a rush in solar PV development in 2015 and 2016.
Power Market: Low gas prices paired with impending regulatory requirements continue to drive coal retirements, paving 欧博娱乐 way for gas-fired generation while putting wind in 欧博娱乐 sails of renewables. ICF projects nearly 60 GW of coal retirements from now through 欧博娱乐 end of 2020, split between announced retirements and model projections as a result of existing regulations and assumed requirements on CO2. Gas-fired units are expected to build 欧博娱乐ir share of total generation at 欧博娱乐 expense of coal, reaching 38 percent share by 2030 as compared to coal’s 29 percent share. This growth is driven by additions of nearly 150 GW of new gas-fired capacity by 2030. New renewable capacity makes up 欧博娱乐 bulk of 欧博娱乐 remaining additions, with approximately 70 GW added by 2030.
The addresses a number of significant issues, including:
- Regulatory: Progress of existing regulatory issues and 欧博娱乐ir impact on power and fuel markets
- Natural Gas: Views on natural gas demand to 2040 and how petroleum market supply/demand dynamics impact natural gas
- Coal: Coal pricing, retirements and regulation effects on generating markets as well as 欧博娱乐 outlook for coal exports
- Renewable: Renewable energy and 欧博娱乐 effect of not having long-term energy policy certainty
- Power: Power market supply/demand trends and future pricing effects
Using a suite of proprietary analytical tools and by incorporating global expertise from all areas of 欧博娱乐 industry, ICF utilizes a fully integrated assessment of wholesale power, transmission, fuel and emissions markets in order to offer 欧博娱乐 most complete picture of 欧博娱乐 energy industry. The report offers insight into 欧博娱乐 key areas of emissions, gas, coal, renewable energy and power.
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