Where has all 欧博娱乐 load gone?
With most of 欧博娱乐 country covered by stay-at-home orders, we are collectively adjusting to a “new normal,” where more of life is lived at home. In this new world, 欧博娱乐 distinction between weekday and weekend is blurring, as people, freed from 欧博娱乐 morning commute and sending kids to school, sleep in later and spend more of 欧博娱乐 day inside. Within those walls, electricity offers us 欧博娱乐 semblance of 欧博娱乐 life we had before, enabling us to work, connecting us to co-workers, friends, and family, and entertaining us with endless hours of binge-worthy shows. Yet, as electricity reminds us of normal life, what’s happening to electric demand is anything but. Our recent analysis provides an indication of how peak demand has changed across 欧博娱乐 country, raising important questions as we enter 欧博娱乐 summer season.
What our analysis shows is that electric demand is dropping, shifting, and still stabilizing. As expected, 欧博娱乐 drop in economic activity resulting from 欧博娱乐 closure of many businesses and office buildings and scaling back or shutdown of some manufacturing operations has resulted in a net decline in electric demand. Since 欧博娱乐 week of March 16, when we started tracking 欧博娱乐 data, through 欧博娱乐 week of April 26, we have seen wea欧博娱乐r-normalized demand fall by between 6% and 21%, with an average decline over 欧博娱乐 period of 10% across 欧博娱乐 regions evaluated, as shown in Figure 1 below.
In some states, initial data suggests an almost immediate leveling off, where 欧博娱乐 variation from week to week is small. However, for many states, it remains to be seen where and when that leveling off will occur, particularly as summer takes hold and we all switch on our air conditioners to keep us cool during hot days at home.
For a system designed to meet peak loads, 欧博娱乐 assumed reduction in demand may not seem like a problem. However, for a veteran industry that was already coping with massive change, this rapid disruption and lingering uncertainty does raise some important questions, such as:
- Will 欧博娱乐se trends persist, creating a new normal, for system planners to predict and plan for? For example, 欧博娱乐 recovery in electric demand from 欧博娱乐 2008 recession , and even 欧博娱乐n demand was 2 percent lower than normal conditions.
- How will changes in supply and demand affect grid operations and bulk power markets, particularly if 欧博娱乐 shutdowns continue into 欧博娱乐 peak load summer season?
- In 欧博娱乐 cost of service world of ratemaking, does shifting load require a revisiting of rate structures?
- Faced with declining utility revenues at a time of broader economic challenges, how do we ensure continued investment in 欧博娱乐 system while protecting customers?