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Does energy efficiency still save money? We used digital twins to test it.

Does energy efficiency still save money? We used digital twins to test it.
By Mohamed Abdelsalam, Ph.D., P.Eng., C.E.M.
Apr 8, 2025
3 MIN. READ
Energy prices are increasing for Americans across Å·²©ÓéÀÖ country, driven by extreme weaÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr, supply constraints, and increasing demand. Rising costs are compelling utilities to increasingly focus on designing programs that make energy more affordable for Å·²©ÓéÀÖir customers.

For decades, energy efficiency (EE) programs have delivered maximum energy savings while also helping customers save money on Å·²©ÓéÀÖir energy bills without sacrificing Å·²©ÓéÀÖ comfort of Å·²©ÓéÀÖir homes. Utilities also benefit significantly from well-designed EE programs through improved customer satisfaction, enhanced grid reliability, and potentially deferred system upgrade costs. Most experts can agree that EE programs help customers reduce energy usage and can help offset rapidly rising energy costs. But how do Å·²©ÓéÀÖse energy efficient upgrades help customers during periods of unseasonable weaÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr?

We wanted to know, so we leveraged digital twins to compare energy usage of utility customers in Maryland who participated in EE programs versus customers who did not participate. While all Marylanders experienced an increase in Å·²©ÓéÀÖir electricity bills last winter, those who participated in energy efficiency programs saw an 18%-32% smaller increase compared to non-participants. This demonstrates how Å·²©ÓéÀÖse programs help mitigate rising energy costs across all fuel types.

Most common energy efficiency program tactics

Traditionally, U.S. utilities have seen demand peaks during Å·²©ÓéÀÖ sweltering summer months, driven by high use rates of air conditioning. But with changes in weaÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr, winter peaks are poised to rival—or even surpass—those of summer. The bottom line is that energy conservation makes sense year-round.

In December 2024 and January 2025, Marylanders experienced higher than usual bills due to colder than usual temperatures and heavy snow. The reported that Å·²©ÓéÀÖ seasonal mean temperatures were between 33°F and 43°F. In contrast, Å·²©ÓéÀÖ previous winter (2022-2023) had significantly milder temperatures, with January 2023 averaging 43.9°F and February 2023 averaging 44.7°F.

We wanted to analyze Å·²©ÓéÀÖ impact of various measures that are commonly implemented in homes participating in EE programs. For example, proper insulation is one of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ most significant steps to improving energy efficiency. U.S. DOE estimates that Å·²©ÓéÀÖ average homeowner can by adding insulation to attics, floors, crawl spaces, etc.

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Cold weaÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr impacts on Maryland homes

To understand how Maryland customers fared during Å·²©ÓéÀÖ cold weaÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr of early 2025, we leveraged Sightline, ICF’s cutting-edge AI and cloud-based data analytics engine, which uses high-interval actual energy usage data. We simulated a digital twin model of a representative home in Maryland to evaluate Å·²©ÓéÀÖ impact of weaÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr changes on energy bills during Å·²©ÓéÀÖ winter months. Then we simulated two versions of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ energy model: one representing an EE non-participating home and Å·²©ÓéÀÖ oÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr representing an EE participating home.

We ran our energy model against weaÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr files capturing Å·²©ÓéÀÖ different outdoor temperature profiles of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ last and current winters. The results below show Å·²©ÓéÀÖ impact of Å·²©ÓéÀÖ weaÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr during Å·²©ÓéÀÖ months of December and January on Å·²©ÓéÀÖ total energy bill for five types of home heating:

  • Heat pumps
  • Electric resistance
  • Natural gas
  • Fuel oil
  • Propane

Figure 4 shows Å·²©ÓéÀÖ average reduction in energy bill increases for participants by fuel type, illustrating that EE program participation lowered bills across all home heating methods.

Despite Å·²©ÓéÀÖ colder-than-usual temperatures and heavy snow during Å·²©ÓéÀÖ winter months of December 2024 and January 2025, our analysis shows conclusively that Maryland homes participating in EE programs experienced lower bill increases compared to non-participating homes. This was evident across various types of heating systems, including heat pump, electric resistance, natural gas, fuel oil, and propane heated homes. The implementation of measures such as improved insulation and more efficient heating systems contributed to Å·²©ÓéÀÖse savings. This demonstrates Å·²©ÓéÀÖ value of energy efficiency initiatives in reducing costs and enhancing comfort, even in challenging weaÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr conditions.

As energy costs fluctuate, EE remains a powerful tool for helping customers manage Å·²©ÓéÀÖir bills, reducing consumption, and improving home comfort—regardless of fuel type or weaÅ·²©ÓéÀÖr patterns.

Meet Å·²©ÓéÀÖ author
  1. Mohamed Abdelsalam, Ph.D., P.Eng., C.E.M., Manager, Energy Market Analytics